Resilient Regions

Identifying trade interdependencies across the world

In this project, we explore regional dependencies in global trade. Our hypothesis posits that large economic regions are highly connected to global value chains, while vulnerability to external shocks is similar in smaller economies. Interconnectedness between regions leads to hidden dependencies for smaller areas not captured by direct trade analysis. Using advanced downscaled trade data, covering 63 products and 45 countries (288 NUTS2-regions for Europe), we distinguish direct/indirect trade within and outside the EU. Measuring dependency through a Zipfian coefficient and employing the Hypothetical Extraction Method, we evaluate the impact of key trade partners’ inability to supply products on each European region.